Breaking down the WNBA Finals: Is this the year the Liberty win it all?
The top two teams in the WNBA’s regular season already played for one title this year, when the Minnesota Lynx beat the New York Liberty in the Commissioner’s Cup in June. Now, they meet in the best-of-five WNBA Finals that start in the Big Apple on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The No. 1 seed Liberty first played for the title in the league’s inaugural season in 1997, when it was decided by a championship game instead of a series. The Liberty subsequently played in the WNBA Finals in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2023. They are seeking their first WNBA championship.
The Lynx franchise launched in 2000 and started a dynasty period when Maya Moore was the No. 1 draft pick in 2011, with Minnesota winning four championships in seven years.
The Liberty have two former MVPs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. The Lynx have this season’s MVP runner-up in Napheesa Collier, who has averaged 27.1 points and 9.6 rebounds in Minnesota’s seven playoff games.
ESPN’s Alexa Philippou, Charlie Creme and Michael Voepel break down the matchup.
By seed, the Liberty are the favorites. How will they deal with the pressure of trying to finally capture the franchise’s first WNBA title?
Philippou: The message was clear in Las Vegas after the Liberty knocked off the Aces to advance to the Finals: “We haven’t done anything yet,” two-time MVP Breanna Stewart said. “[There’s] just the feeling of not satisfied.”
During the semifinals, New York more often than not displayed determination and execution over complacency or pressure. Aces coach Becky Hammon spoke throughout the series on the power of collective pain, on how the Liberty turned last year’s loss into fuel, into something that has made them stronger. Now three wins away from their ultimate goal, there’s little reason to believe that approach and level of focus will change in the championship series.
Voepel: The pressure of the historical task at hand isn’t going to overburden the Liberty. I don’t think it did last year, either. They were just defeated by an Aces team that had more postseason experience together.
Plus, we know now why Stewart wasn’t as dominant last postseason. It was obvious then something was off, but no one outside the team knew whether she was dealing with an undisclosed injury or another issue. She has shared since that her father-in-law was battling cancer and died during the playoffs. His death and Stewart’s wife being about to give birth weighed heavily. Stewart has said during these playoffs that things feel “lighter,” and she has looked like the player we are accustomed to seeing.
Creme: From the moment they walked off the floor at Barclays Center in October 2023 while the Aces celebrated a second straight championship, the Liberty players had a mission to not let that happen again and to bring the first title to New York. The last step is the toughest, but the Liberty have been able to focus on the next possession, the next stop and the next play all season. That shouldn’t stop in the Finals. And if it does, there are enough veterans on this team to remind teammates to remember the mission. Having been through this a year ago with essentially the same group will only help this time around. New York’s advantage over the Lynx in experience is massive and should help tremendously.
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Napheesa Collier cooks Sun for 27 points en route to WNBA Finals
Napheesa Collier drops 27 points as the Lynx dominate the Sun to reach the WNBA Finals.
What has been most impressive about Collier’s season, and could she be the best player in this series?
Philippou: There was a stretch after the Olympic break where Collier made an argument for earning some MVP votes. A’ja Wilson ended up dominating down the stretch and breaking several records as the Aces closed the regular season with a 9-1 run. But Collier now has a chance to win her first WNBA championship and come away with Finals MVP.
Interestingly, Collier wasn’t the outright top scorer for Minnesota in any of its games against New York (though she impacts the game in several ways beyond scoring). In a best-of-five series, it’s tough to see the Lynx winning it all if Collier isn’t their best player — maybe even the best player on the floor — but she’ll undoubtedly need help from the likes of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton for the Lynx to come out on top.
Voepel: Collier’s postseason numbers bear out that she has been the most dominant player in the 2024 playoffs thus far. During the regular season, she had career-high averages in rebounds, assists and blocks, and her second-highest scoring average.
What’s one thing that has surprised — good or bad — about the Liberty or the Lynx?
Voepel: Few at the start of the season expected Minnesota to be a title contender — or maybe even a playoff team. That assessment of the Lynx changed quickly — really, within the first weeks of seeing them play. By the time they won the Commissioner’s Cup on June 25 at New York — the game was played at UBS Arena because Barclays Center was hosting the NBA draft — the Lynx were clearly in the running to win it all.
A pleasant surprise for the Liberty: how well Leonie Fiebich has played in her first WNBA season. Drafted in 2020 by Los Angeles, she was traded twice before making her WNBA debut at age 24 this season after playing professionally overseas. Both as a starter and off the bench, the 6-foot-4 Fiebich has given already-big New York even more size.
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Sabrina Ionescu’s 22 points push Liberty to WNBA Finals
Sabrina Ionescu puts up 22 points to clinch the series vs. the Aces and push the Liberty to the WNBA Finals.
Creme: Minnesota’s season-long chemistry. Teams with only five returning players aren’t supposed to mesh so quickly and sustain it for 47 games. The Lynx went from 19-21 to the second-best record in the WNBA with a completely revamped roster. Cheryl Reeve, Lynx coach and president of basketball operations, and the rest of the Minnesota brass found all the right players to put around Collier and McBride, creating the best passing team and best 3-point shooting team in the league. Reeve was also able to pull something out of Carleton and Alanna Smith, who both exceeded anything they had done previously as pros.
Philippou: That Minnesota is in the Finals. The Lynx’s free agency signings of Courtney Williams and Smith weren’t considered splashy, particularly compared with moves by Phoenix and Seattle. The Lynx weren’t expected to be special, yet over the past five months they proved they shouldn’t have been overlooked.
And it’s a fun twist that the franchise’s first team to reach the Finals since their last title in 2017 came absent much star power. Moore, Seimone Augustus, Sylvia Fowles and Lindsay Whalen were all lottery picks (Moore and Augustus went No. 1), but these Lynx feature just two: McBride (No. 3 in 2014) and Diamond Miller (No. 2 in 2023), who has had a reduced role this season returning from injury. Collier, of course, should never have dropped to sixth in the 2019 draft. Still, her emergence into a top-three player in the league has surpassed even Reeve’s expectations.
How much should we read into the teams’ regular-season series and the Lynx’s Commissioner’s Cup final win over the Liberty?
Creme: The regular season means little at this point. Last year, New York held the upper hand on Las Vegas and routed the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup final — yet still lost the Finals to them. Sure, the matchups and tendencies that came from the four meetings provide some insight, but these games are different. I tend to lean more on the fact New York has gone through this before. This Lynx group hasn’t.
Voepel: I’m not going to dismiss the regular-season results. The Lynx already beat the Liberty in a championship environment for the Commissioner’s Cup. And while that was 3½ months ago, Minnesota’s most recent victory over the Liberty was Sept. 15, an 88-79 win at New York. The playoffs always have a different feel in any sport, but the Lynx at least come into the Finals knowing they had the upper hand in three of the four previous meetings.
Philippou: I’m with Voepel. Especially after seeing how successful Minnesota was in limiting Jones in most of their meetings. Notably, the Lynx also had their way offensively against the Liberty, scoring at least 84 points and shooting at least 48% from the 3-point arc in their three wins over New York. The Liberty might be the top seed and familiar with the Finals stage, but it would be unwise to discount the fact that the Lynx have had their number most of this season.
Which player is the biggest X factor in the series?
Voepel: Ionescu. The Liberty’s only loss thus far in the playoffs was Game 3 of the semifinals when she was held to 4 points by the Aces. Las Vegas threw multiple defenders at her. Afterward she referred to the Aces’ performance as “Minnesota-esque,” comparing it with how well the Lynx defend the perimeter. Toss out that loss, and Ionescu is averaging 24.0 points per game in the postseason. If the high-scoring version of Ionescu shows out this series, New York will be very difficult to beat.
Creme: If Jones performs well, the Liberty will look unbeatable. When she doesn’t, the burden on Stewart and Ionescu grows significantly. In the regular-season meetings, Jones put up 21 points and 12 rebounds in the Liberty’s lone win over the Lynx, and she averaged 5.3 points in the three losses. Paired with Stewart, the 6-6 Jones offers a matchup problem for every team in the league given her size and versatility (39.1% on 3-pointers). Much like Las Vegas, Minnesota lacks a second big defender. If Collier is matched up with Stewart, Jones has a distinct physical advantage over Smith or Hines-Allen. The Aces elected to have A’ja Wilson guard Jones, and Stewart had a dominant series.
Philippou: Fiebich for New York and Carleton for Minnesota. The former second-round picks and 2024 Olympians — Fiebich a standout rookie from Germany, Carleton a veteran from Canada in the midst of a career year — have secured starting spots on their respective teams and are known for their defense and 3-point shooting. Which one will have a bigger series? Carleton had an argument for MVP of the Commissioner’s Cup championship game with a team-high 23 points (including six 3-pointers).
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Lynx celebrate WNBA Finals berth after beating Sun
The Lynx dominate the Sun in Game 5 to book a trip to the WNBA Finals.
Which team will win?
Creme: Liberty in 4. If Collier is the best player in the series, this is anybody’s championship to win. If it’s Stewart, then New York will get its first title. Stewart won’t soon forget that 3-of-17 shooting performance in Game 4 last year and will turn that into further motivation. She will win her third Finals MVP trophy.
Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 5. On the basketball side, a Lynx team that can put five players on the perimeter and also play aggressive defense against a great Liberty team can win another title for Reeve. But it also feels like this fearless group is destined to win another title — and they will.
Philippou: Liberty in 5. New York will win because it has the hunger, focus and experience from last year’s Finals defeat — plus home-court advantage — to finally get the job done.
Voepel: Lynx in 5. Minnesota is the No. 2 seed but was the better team head-to-head in its previous matchups with New York. The Lynx have played consistently and cohesively all season, save a brief stretch when Collier was out with plantar fasciitis. It feels like it should finally be the Liberty’s year. But the Lynx have been able to turn things like that to their advantage this season.