Ukrainian concerns grow over war aid if Trump wins US election

Ukrainians are nervously following the final days of the US presidential election campaign, some fearing a victory for Donald Trump could halt Washington’s vital aid.

Tuesday’s US vote will take place as the war with Russia grinds through its third year, with the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian army on the back foot against Russia’s advancing troops.

Moscow’s alliance with Pyongyang appears more solid than ever, with Washington and Seoul saying thousands of North Korean troops have been sent to Russia.

By contrast, Ukraine’s war-fatigued backers could be further disheartened by the potential return to the White House of Trump, who has given no assurance of support to Kyiv.

“A Trump victory would create grave risks. The situation would be alarming,” former Ukrainian ambassador to the US Oleg Shamshur told AFP.

Washington has driven NATO-wide support to Ukraine, with Kyiv receiving billions of dollars in financial and military aid enabling it to keep up the fight against a much more powerful Russia.

That support has however been eroded in Europe and the United States over the past few months.

Trump’s repeated criticism of US support for Ukraine and claims that he would end the fighting within 24 hours, have only raised Ukraine’s fears.

“Neither he nor his team believe in Ukraine’s victory,” Shamshur said.

‘No matter who wins’ 

Trump has refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win, and has not published any strategy on how to end the war.

His running mate JD Vance has advocated freezing combat along current lines, around which a demilitarised zone would be set up.

Trump’s plan would also put pressure on Kyiv to give up its aspiration to join NATO, as the Kremlin wishes, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to further attacks.

“This will be a respite for Putin,” said Shamshur, adding that he believed Russia would use that time to rebuild its army and resume, when ready, its plans “aimed at the complete destruction of Ukraine”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already ruled out the territorial concessions demanded by Russia.

“Ukraine will not recognise these territories (as Russian), no matter who wants it to, no matter who wins in the US,” he said in an interview for the South Korean TV channel KBS.

A senior Ukrainian presidency official, however, expressed more conciliatory views in a conversation with AFP.

He said the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, which took place in the United States in September, had gone “very well”.

“Trump will surely not want to be the man that led America to lose face to Putin,” he said, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity.

Ukraine is preparing for all possible outcomes and fostering relations with teams of both candidates, the official added.

‘Catastrophe’ 

Whoever wins the election will have to tackle the war in Ukraine, where the tide seems to be turning in favour of Moscow.

Russia has advanced 478 square kilometres (185 square miles) into Ukrainian territory in October alone, a record since March 2022,  according to an AFP analysis of data from the American Institute for the Study of War.

In the Donetsk region, where two-thirds of these gains were claimed, 51-year-old Ukrainian sergeant Sergiy said he took a pragmatic view.

He told AFP he did not care who won so long as “the US continues to help us”.

But he predicted that a Trump victory “could be a catastrophe not only for Ukraine, but for the United States”.

Ukrainian troops had a first taste of Republican foot-dragging between late 2023 and early 2024, when Trump’s supporters blocked US military assistance.

That forced Ukrainian forces to ration shells and allowed Russia to build momentum.

“If it is like it was at the beginning of the year, it will be very, very bad,” Sergiy said.

Bogdan, a young soldier fighting in the same region, said he hopes Trump will “just want to show America’s strength, determination and capabilities”.

Rodion, another soldier interviewed in Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv, was also confident.

“I know they won’t betray us,” he said.

He vowed to fight “until the end, until our victory”.